I listened to an interesting panel discussion at the Opsource, SaaS Summit a few days ago and I thought I would share what I heard.

Venture capital panelists were from Intel Capital, Emergence Capital Partners, CrossLink Capital and Hummer Winblad Venture Partners and Merrill Lynch.

New Investments

Seems like there was no agreement from the panel about what stage of investment was the most popular given the downturn.   There were several Series A and Seed investments that were mentioned including Crowd Factory and Zuberance.  One bright spot for investors was the fact that OpenTable has filed for an IPO, which would be a good step in the right direction given 2008’s anemic IPO performance.

Zombie Venture Capitalists

Most of the panelists had done some investments in the past six months but it is clear that SaaS entrepreneurs need to be on the look out for Zombie VC’s, who are still operating but are no longer making investments.  These walking dead  have their lights on, they have websites, and cash to support existing investments but no longer have enough cash to add new portfolio companies.  In writing this post I even discovered that peHUB publishes a list of these Zombie VC’s.  If they haven’t made any new investments during 2008, then I would be careful about wasting any time with these firms.

Flat is the New Up

One phrase that was uttered more than once is that ‘Flat is the New Up’.  Although when it comes to Software as a Service…  it appears that ‘Up is still Up’.  Even in 2008, most publicly traded SaaS companies have bounced back from their lows by an aggregate of 20%, which is much better than the S&P 500.  Apparently Wall Street likes SaaS companies and now are valuing them at 3 to 3.5 times their recurring revenues, unfortunately at the beginning of 2008 that number was closer to 8x.  Keep in mind that this is better than a lot of public firms that are currently trading at their cash values.  Other Wall Street analysts are valuing SaaS firms at 12x their cash flow but it is difficult to understand if there is a consistent valuation metric that firms or investors should be using.

Another interesting development is that Venture firms are now forced to value their private portfolio the same way they would value a portfolio of publicly traded stocks due to new accounting regulations (FASB 157).  Based on the discussion this new regulation, it will only create more company valuation compression on top an already tough market for portfolio companies.

What Does a Good Investment Look Like?

So what are the VC’s looking for in an attractive investment in this market?  Apparently the same things they were looking for in the past; a game changing idea, the team, the product and a big market.   If you are a software company you better be offering a real SaaS solution or be leveraging the Cloud Computing to even be considered.

They are also looking for new portfolio companies to be more conservative about spending their precious cash.  There is now an overt trade-off between the rapid growth rates of the last five years and capital efficiency to provide a longer runway for portfolio companies.  The panelists indicated that they would like to see their new Series A companies, for example those who might raise $4 million, to survive at least for 18-24 months before going out for their next round!  With the difficult market dynamics it is important for SaaS firms to form a strong syndicate when raising capital because your next round will be an insider round.

The panel indicated that they are looking for operating executives who know how to manage cash and scrub expenses.  Another observation was that many of the early stage companies that they are seeing now are much more mature and well run than they were just a few years ago.

There also won’t be any more Salary.com (NASDAQ: SLRY) IPO’s of $15 million companies.  IPO candidates will need to be $50 to $70 million in revenues and ideally profitable before filing their S-1.

For public SaaS companies you are going to see a slow down in the rapid growth rates we were seeing from companies like Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) and SuccessFactors (NASDAQ: SFSF).  Public markets want to see profitability first and growth now comes second.  Momentum stocks, those with high growth rates were trading at 8-9 times revenues, like Salesforce and SuccessFactors, are giving way to slower growth companies that are profitable and are given a multiple on cash flows.

Customer Acquisition Costs

When building your SaaS business model, it is important to assume that for every dollar of recurring revenue you will probably need to invest $.50 to $1.00 in your Customer Acquisition Costs (CAC). It is important than ever to have an active program of testing various CAC channels and tactics to maximize your investments.  Then you need to have a smart statistical framework that you can explain to your investors.

Smart firms like EchoSign and YouSendIt are creating leads virally by infecting their customers and they are finding that they are finding 1/3 to 1/2 of all of their leads are generated organically.   It is also important to leverage distribution channels, especially companies that have access to large customer bases like Salesforce.com, Google, and Intuit.  Take more of a focused approach to your customer acquisition efforts by targeting a vertical market and use the power of your customer referrals because ‘word of mouth’ is the least expensive and most effective lead generation engine.  Keep in mind that your sales process needs to be as easy as possible, in other words it needs to be ‘friction-less’.  When your prospects sign up for a trial, it only takes a few minutes and weeks and they can do it without any involvement from your company.  Give them a free trial, a sandbox a free version.

So I came away from this panel discussion with the following advice for companies looking for funding in this environment:

1. You need to still need to have a great idea, product and team but you might need to have reduced risk for your potential investors.
2. Demonstrate your company knows how to stretch a dollar as far as possible.  Fewer employees is better… think Craigslist.
3. Show traction.  Number of transactions, members, customers, revenues, profits.
4. Shop carefully for your potential investors and don’t waste time with Zombies.

Crazy like a fox.

With the economy in such tough shape, with customers on the sidelines with no budget to buy software, maybe now is the perfect time to embrace a Freemium software strategy.  This concept was originally proposed by a venture captialist named Fred Wilson, the founder of Union Square Ventures.

This became really clear to me over the past 6 months that this trend towards free software might be the future.   Initially I read a great article entitled Free! is the Future in Wired magazine (make sure you watch the Chris Anderson video), which I thought presented a very clear argument for free.

Think of all of the free software and services business models that went bust during the Internet Boom.  But then again there have been many businesses that were built using a free business model including Google, Yahoo!, Skype, eBay, and Craigslist just to name a few.  Some of the new kids on the freemium block include Facebook, LinkedIn, SimplyHired, Kijiji, 37signals and many of the open source software players.

My second realization of the power of free was using 37signals BaseCamp project management product.  It was a great example of providing a free product that you liked so much that you had to buy into their paid  version.  If you need a project management tool, this one is worth a subscription and you may end up pulling out your credit card like me.

Then my third reason why I thought freemium could really be the future of software is based on working with a great company, MrTed, who makes Applicant Tracking or ATS software for large companies.  MrTed just recently launched their new Small and Medium business freemium offering, SmartRecruiters, which is an Open SaaS product, which is a mashup of Open Source and SaaS business concepts.  This Open SaaS model was developed by Jerome Ternynck MrTed’s CEO and founder. SmartRecruiters like many other freemium offerings is based on the development of a strong and passionate user community, who ultimately become the revenue engine for these companies. SmartRecruiters will monetize their business model by offering a collection of value-added services that are bundled with their free software.

As companies look at their 2009 business strategies, they need to balance gaining marketshare while keeping customer acquisition costs (CAC) as low as possible.  By deploying a freemium software strategy now you might be considered crazy in 2009 but be laughing all the way in the not too distant future.