It is always hard to predict the future, but here are my 10 Predictions for the SaaS market in 2011, and they might just happen:

Blockbuster Subscription Software IPO’s

A number of large consumer subscription software players including Facebook, Groupon, LinkedIn, Zynga and Skype could really open up the public markets with a major blockbuster IPO (or IPO’s) in 2011.  SaaS firms that look to get everyone’s attention with potential IPO’s next year include Cornerstone OnDemand, Workday, Marketo, Service-Now and possibly Plateau.

Major Players Merge to Form the Next Big SaaS Brand

So my prediction (which is a pure guess) is that SuccessFactors and Taleo finally get over their respective CEO ego issues and decide to merge.   Sounds a little crazy, but when you really consider their product portfolios, there might not be as much of an overlap as you might think.  SuccessFactors is basically a performance and analytics company and Taleo is a recruiting and learning (after acquiring Learn.com) company.  They both have some additional components that could be plugged into to create a more comprehensive suite of CPM and Talent Management offerings.

This would also create a combined company with a market cap approaching (SFSF + TLEO) $4B and annual revenues in excess of $400M, which would be the second largest SaaS firm in the market, and a clear leader in their space.  Another potential marriage might be Concur and Ultimate Software.

Oracle Finally Pulls the Trigger on NetSuite

It seems like most Oracle SaaS rumors involve the acquisition of Salesforce.com, and that may happen some day, but the more likely combination for 2011 is NetSuite.  Larry Ellison is a major investor in NetSuite (early investor) and own/controls more that 50% of the company’s shares.  He may come to the conclusion that he needs some real SaaS DNA inside of Oracle to help grow their Fusion business in 2011 and beyond.

SAP Throws in The Towel and Buys Leading SaaS Player

Similar to the realization that many other major traditional ISV’s will come to in 2011, that they are too far beyond in SaaS to catch up organically, SAP will buy their way into SaaS.  The Business ByDesign project for SAP, by some estimates, has cost more than $1 billion and there isn’t much to show for it.  I always thought that the Sybase acquisition was just a smoke screen to cover up how little progress has been made with BBD at their most recent Sapphire user meeting.   Like Oracle, I think SAP reaches out into the market and purchases a SaaS firm to jump start BBD.  RightNow would be an interesting choice since SAP wants to make a splash in the CRM market.

Master Brands Continue to March Towards SaaS

These big software companies are no longer just paying lip service to SaaS or the Cloud, they continue to catch up with the subscription software market transition that is happening everywhere.  All sizes of customers who were battered during the recession are no longer interested in spending a lot of capital and time that has been associated with traditional software projects and are becoming increasing comfortable with SaaS.  This shift in the Software market is massive and is going to take at least 10 years, and we are probably only in the second year (post-recession) of this shift.  Continue to look to see what SaaS moves firms like Oracle, SAP, HP, CA and Infor make in 2011.

Continued Explosion of PaaS offerings

Look at Salesforce.com’s recent moves to expand their Force.com Platform-as-a-Service portfolio with VMForce and then buying Ruby on Rails provider Heroku for over $200 million.  Beyond Force.com there are many other offerings here today and coming in 2011 including App Engine by Google, Apprenda, Azure by Microsoft, Corent, Engine Yard, Facebook, Flex by Adobe, Fusion by Oracle, Intalio, IPP by Intuit, LongJump, Nimbula, SuiteCloud by NetSuite, and Wolf Frameworks.

As long as traditional ISV’s continue to move towards SaaS, there will be a green field opportunity for all types of PaaS solutions. Look for several of these firms to be acquired in 2011 by larger ISV’s.

Salesforce.com Continues to Expand Beyond CRM

After attending Dreamforce this month, it was curious to see a number of Force.com firms offering ERP extensions starting to gain real market momentum. Companies like FinancialForce.com (they purchased Appirio’s PSE business) who are delivering a growing suite of financial and accounting applications, JobScience who continue to build out their Talent Relationship Management suite on Force.com, Less Software who is selling a targeted Supply Chain Management solution and even Remedy’s Service Desk offering, RemedyForce Cloud.   If Salesforce offers an attractive exit for any of these firms or their Force.com products, like they did with Heroku, then it might be possible to do a quick roll-up of key partners to create a competitive Cloud-based ERP solution.

Interestingly this type of move might be triggered by Oracle buying Netsuite or Workday going public.

Fake SaaS Firms That Use Private Clouds Will Loose Altitude

Although Private Clouds might be a viable alternative for enterprises who are looking to leverage the economics of the Cloud, for software companies this type of approach will only provide short term ‘Fake SaaS‘ types of solutions.  This type of business model of hosting single-tenant software was known as Application Service Providers (ASP’s) and none of these companies that emerged about 10 years ago were able to find a business model that really scaled profitably.   Private Clouds will offer a short term technology transition steps for software companies who are moving away from just offering traditional on-premise software but this trend will really start to fade by later next year.

New Revenue Streams for SaaS Firms That OEM

At Dreamforce ‘10 Salesforce.com announced that they are launching their new Database.com offering, a Database in the Cloud. What was interesting about this news is that Salesforce is really just reselling a private-label version of Oracle’s database technology.  For Salesforce this is a unique way to take proven Oracle software, designed for on-premise deployment, and create a true subscription-based version of this product.  No doubt that Salesforce will need to do some work to create a massive multi-tenant version of an ORACLE database and then deliver it as a service, but they are already doing this today through their Force.com platform.  This could be a significant new revenue stream for both companies and look for other SaaS firms to try OEM’ing their software as a way to improve their CAGRs in 2011.

This should be an interesting year as the economy improves and the SaaS market really begins to gain some serious momentum.  It should be a fun time to be in the Software business again.

Kevin Dobbs,  Montclair Advisors, LLC

By Kevin Dobbs

The last few months have been quite active in the SaaS market and here are some things that caught my attention:

• Who would have believed that we would be seeing Initial Public Offerings after our recent recession but new offerings include SciQuest (NASDAQ: SQI), Qlik Technologies (NASDAQ: QLIK), Ancestory.com (NASDAQ: ACOM) and Financial Engines (NASDAQ: FNGN).  There are a number of upcoming IPO’s including Talent Management provider Cornerstone OnDemand.

• You can tell the SaaS and Software markets continue to gain momentum based on the number of M&A deals over the past 90 days including Oracle buying Art Technology Group, hardware company Dell purchased SaaS integration firm Boomi, Deltek buys government market research firm INPUT, talent management leader SuccessFactors buys analytics firm Youcalc, Taleo purchasing Learn.com for $125M, recruiting firm Kenexa acquired Salary.com and even PE-owned SumTotal Systems buying Softscape.

• Firms that are making good progress in their SaaS transitions include Callidus (NASDAQ: CALD) and Plateau Systems.

• Software companies who seem to be having more trouble with their current subscription and license models include Concur (NASDAQ: CNQR), MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR), Manhattan Associates (NASDAQ: MANH), and SAP (NYSE: SAP).

• The Venture community continues to fund SaaS and Cloud Computing firms, several who have been profiled by this blog have received funding in the last six months (congrats!) internet billing firm Zuora lands $20M, Cloud management platform RightScale grabbed $25M, multi-tenancy Cloud platform firm Nimbula raises $15M, marketing automation provider Marketo, Bill.com, social platform provider Jive Software raises $30M, Gooddata and Cloud9 Analytics.

• SaaS, Software and Cloud Computing firms have also made some interesting management changes over the past few months including; ex-Oracle president Charles Phillips (video) moved over to become the new CEO at Infor, Taleo lands a new CFO former Palm executive Douglas Jefferies, Saba has added a SaaS-experienced CMO Karen Steele, SuccessFactors brings in seasoned President from Salesforce.com - Doug Dennerline, PeopleclickAuthoria Chairman Charles Jones returns as CEO to run company and well-respected analyst Ray Wang joins Constellation Research.

By Kevin Dobbs

Montclair Advisors, LLC

When thinking about your transition to SaaS, there are many questions to consider including target customers, value propositions, packaging, pricing and how best to build customer relationships.

After conducting more than 50 Smart SaaS business profiles of all different types including pure SaaS, Hybrids and Cross-Overs, all of these companies would probably answer many of these types of questions differently depending on their type of customer, functionality, geography, vertical markets and the only way they can get useful answers is to continually test everything.   Best in class SaaS firms are always trying different pricing, packages, messages in order to optimize their businesses, like a recent firm we profiled - Clarizen.

Some resources when thinking about these types of considerations include:

Software Pricing Partners - Jim Geisman

Chaotic Flow - Joel York

SaaS Blogs

Sixteen Ventures - Lincoln Murphy

4 Pillars of SaaS - Phil Wainewright, ZDNet

In addition to testing, it is a good idea to measure everything including website traffic, marketing campaigns, product usage, customer satisfaction and a myriad of other SaaS and business metrics.  Again, the best firms track and monitor all the key business metrics in order to improve their ability to generate revenues, build market share and reduce unnecessary customer churn.  SaaS requires a very tight operational model and has moved business an art to a science and now there are an entire new class to tools to improve revenue performance and reduce costs.  Some of these next generation of tools include:

Sales Automation

EchoSign - Provides electronic signature and contract management.

InsideView - Sales business intelligence and social media platform.

JigSaw - Business information and data services.

NetSuite - CRM and ERP suite.

RightNow - CRM, call center and social platform.

Salesforce.com - Salesforce is not only a solid Customer Relationship Management system but also a great system of record for all types of sales, marketing and service information and applications. Also offers a application marketplace that provides value added extensions.  Salesforce also offers Chatter a collaboration platform to improve internal communications.

SugarCRM - Open source based CRM that provides a robust no cost solution.

Marketing Automation

Eloqua - Marketing automation platform.

Genius.com - Sales and lead automation.

MarketBright - Marketing and lead generation management.

Marketo - Marketing and revenue management.

Pardot - Business to Business lead automation.

SaaS Analytics

Birst - On demand business intelligence product.

Cloud9 Analytics - SaaS performance management.

GoodData - SaaS business intelligence product.

PivotLink - On demand business intelligence product.

Using many of these tools companies can help a SaaS firm track their business, sales and marketing performance.  The question that I often get is ‘what should I be tracking?’  There are an emerging set of SaaS-based business metrics that include Monthly Recurring Revenues (MRR), Churn, Customer Acquisition Costs (CAC), The Magic Number (MN) and others that provide very precise views into how a SaaS business is performing.  Here is a chart that details some of the more common SaaS business metrics by functional area:

Other resources to learn about SaaS metrics;

5 C’s of SaaS Finance - Bessemer Ventures

Chaotic Flow - Joel York

For Entrepreneaurs - David Skok, Matrix Partners

Haut Tech - Michael Dunham at Scio Development

My opinion about the SaaS business model is that there are a lot of new considerations about building a profitable subscription business today.  The buyers are different, there are many robust low-cost tools available, Cloud technology that can radically change your cost model and time to market as well as many other business factors, so the only real way to really tune your business for SaaS is to continually test everything!

I would be interested in your comments and hearing about what you are testing.

Stay tuned for Tip #4 Sales & Marketing on a Budget

The broader SaaS market (I would include PaaS and Cloud Computing) have been really interesting this year and here are some of the notable news items that have caught my attention over the past couple of months:

Mergers & Acqusitions

SuccessFactors buys CubeTree for $50M… Interesting move into the collaboration space

IBM buys CastIron … Nice compliment to their Cloud Infrastructure offerings.  Is Boomi next?

… then IBM buys CoreMetrics.

Salesforce.com buys JigSaw for $142M! … Surprised that they would pay up for a content company.

CA buys Nimsoft for $350M … gets into the SaaS infrastructure management market.  Good company.

SAP buys Sybase for $5.8B …  not sure about this one?  A diversion to deflect attention away from BBD?

RedPrairie buys SmartTurn … traditional SCM provider begins their move to SaaS.

VMWare looking at EngineYard … interesting since Amazon funded this Ruby-on-Rails PaaS startup.

Fundings & IPO’s

Marketing Automation: Marketo raises $10M Series D, led by Mayfield.

Enterprise Collaboration: Yammer raises $10M Series B, led by Emergence Capital.

Financial Analytics:  Host Analytics raises $15M Series C, led by Next World Capital.

Cloud Business Intelligence:  Cloud9 Analytics raises $8M Series C, led by Mayfield.

Recent SaaS/Cloud IPO’s include Convio, SPS Commerce and Financial Engines.

New Products and Launches

Broadvision launches Clearvale … Ning for the enterprise.

Plateau launches PaaS platform for Talent Management

Mercer partners with PeopleClick Authoria, first combination of HR consulting content with Talent Management technology platform

VMware and Force.com partner, launch VMForce.

Lawson launches ERP Cloud offering on Amazon AWS … too little, too late?

Recently Profiled SaaS Companies by Montclair Advisors

Birst, CentralDesktop, Cloud9 Analytics, GoodData, Marketo, Netsuite and WOLF Frameworks.

There are definitely a lot going on in the SaaS and Cloud Computing markets and we will continue to cover newsworthy events and profile leading players throughout 2010.