As it turned out I was right about 50% of my predictions last year, so here’s my educated guesses for what is going to happen to the SaaS market in 2012:
#10 Oracle will buy Netsuite.
I know this isn’t much of a surprise since Larry Ellison owns approximately 65% of Netsuite, but with the RightNow acquisition, this type of move makes more sense as part of coordinated Cloud acquisition strategy.
#9 SaaS IPO window remains open.
There are a number of SaaS firms who have either filed, like Eloqua, or are seriously considering going public in 2012, like Workday, Dropbox, Box, and Guidewire. This window can be opened even wider by successful IPO’s from companies like Yelp and Facebook. The only problem is that there are over 100 companies who have already filed to go public in 2012, so it might be difficult for smaller SaaS firms to do their IPO.
#8. Master brands will continue to chase SaaS offerings.
IBM just purchased DemandTec and SAP bought SuccessFactors, while Oracle bought RightNow. This is a big change from 2010 when most of these companies were not interested in the Cloud or SaaS. All of these master brands have tried to build their own SaaS businesses, but I think they have now finally realized that SaaS is a business model, not just new technology. The smart firms will keep their SaaS businesses and their core license businesses separate and not try and merge them. Good luck.
#7. Workday will have a monster IPO.
There is no doubt that the 2012 IPO of Facebook will set all sorts of records but for enterprise software, I think Workday will be one of the biggest on record. The company just took in $85 million in funding over the past few months, in what was termed an IPO preview round. Workday could raise as much as $500 million in an IPO, which would force the big ERP players to start building out their SaaS businesses as a defensive strategy at the bare minimum.
#6. SaaS starts to go global.
I was involved in an Oracle SaaS webinar a couple of weeks ago for an audience in Europe and the response was really impressive. I initially thought that most of the registrants would be from the UK, the Netherlands, Germany and Scandinavia. Actually there were attendees from almost every country in Europe. I have also started to hear about strong SaaS interest in Australia, New Zealand, Brazil, Japan, China and many other countries. 2012 will just continue to build on the SaaS market’s growing global momentum.
#5. Salesforce continues to expand beyond CRM.
During 2011 Salesforce purchased several firms that added new capabilities to their platform including DimDim (collaboration), Radian6 (social analytics), Model Metrics (mobility) and then they bought Rypple in December, which launched them into the Human Capital market. I predict that Salesforce will add several other HCM tuck-in acquisitions (JobScience, Jobvite), financial applications (FinancialForce, Zuora), or even supply chain management (Glovia OM, Kenandy).
#4. IT Management and Security SaaS offerings emerge.
Companies like CA have been successful in launching their new Nimsoft ITM SaaS offering during 2011, but there are also many other firms that are beginning to gain momentum with their new SaaS offerings as well. This is a very big market opportunity to replace existing legacy infrastructure and security offerings. Companies to watch include Service-Now, Trustwave, Splunk, PingIdentity and Proofpoint.
(Note: CA/Nimsoft and PingIdentity are Montclair Advisors clients)
#3. SaaS continues to be social.
With Jive going public during December 2011, they are just the most recent example of SaaS social applications gaining market acceptance. Salesforce has been very successful with their Chatter and Radian6 offerings. Independents like Yammer, SocialCast, Lithium and CentralDesktop will continue to see increased demand for their social/collaboration platforms.
#2. More big VC rounds for SaaS firms.
2012 will continue to see VC’s put a lot of money to work with leading SaaS companies. We saw some major investments during 2011 including Box ($81 million), Dropbox ($250 million), HubSpot ($32 million), Marketo ($50 million), Workday ($85 million) and Zuora ($35 million). This trend will continue in 2012 and companies will be putting a lot of money to work to build out their platforms and distribution capabilities.
#1. Storage is a major story for 2012.
As more and more data is stored in the Cloud, consumers and businesses are looking to all different types of on-line storage services. During the year that Apple launched its iCloud small business and music storage service, we also saw major funding rounds for SaaS companies including Dropbox and Box. We even saw a new IPO from Carbonite that provides a small business/consumer Cloud back-up service. This is definitely a segment of the SaaS market to keep an eye on in 2012.
Over the past few months SaaS companies have continued to announce very large funding rounds as they are demonstrating the power of their subscription-based business platforms. Many of these firms are deciding to do large private rounds before filing to go public. Here is a quick round-up of some of these firms:
The company has raised an amazing series B round of $250 million. Dropbox is the Cloud storage company that is very popular with mobile phone and iPad users. They have about 70 employees and have secured more than 40 million customers in the past 12 months. This round put the company’s market valuation at close to $4 billion. This is probably the largest B round we have seen and may have been done as an alternative to doing an IPO. Sounds like a Facebook type of story because like Mark Zuckerberg turned down a significant acquisition offer from Google, and apparently the DropBox founders, Drew Houston and Arash Ferdowsi, turned down a nine-figure offer from Apple in 2009.
Workday or “PeopleSoft 2.0″, has been making consistent progress towards a 2012 IPO and announced at their recent Workday Rising conference in October that they had just closed an $85 million dollar round of funding. Like Dropbox, Workday has now raised about $250 million. With this lastest round, the company is now valued at $2 billion. What was interesting is that unlike most private fundings, which are usually led by venture capital firms, this round was lead almost exclusively by institutional investors like T. Rowe Price, Morgan Stanley, Janus and Fidelity. As co-CEO Aneel Bhusri put it “In some ways, it’s an early debut of an IPO.” Workday claims they are on track to do about $320 bookings during 2011, which is more than 100% CAGR from 2010.
Another major Cloud storage company, Box.net, resisted a $600 million dollar offer from Citrix and just closed an $81 million round with Bessemer Venture Partners, NEA, Salesforce.com and SAP and existing investors Draper Fisher Jurvetson and Andreesen Horowitz. After this round the company’s valuation is $600 million. The company has about 7 million users and is leveraging a very successful ‘freemium’ go-to-market model.
With competitor Eloqua already in IPO registration to raise $100 million for their Revenue Performance Management (RPM) platform business, Marketo isn’t far behind. The company announced last week that they had just raised another $50 million in a round led by Battery Ventures along with Institutional Venture Partners, InterWest, Mayfield Fund and Storm Ventures. Marketo’s estimated size of around $15 million in in 2010, should double in 2011, but they are probably a little small to do an IPO at this point. Obviously the venture community thinks this RPM area around marketing and revenue optimization for SaaS is quite hot right now.
As part of their IPO registration, Jive Software just raised another $40 million prior to their public offering. Sequoia Capital and Kleiner Perkins Caulfield & Byers purchased stock through preferred warrants. Jive is provides an enterprise social business platform. Currently the company is on a $80 million run-rate but still not profitable and has raised close to $100 million overall.
Enterprise subscription commerce and billing provider Zuora also announced a large round of funding last week. The company raised a Series D round of $35 million from Index Ventures, Greylock along with a personal investment from Workday co-CEO Dave Duffield and their existing investors. To date the company has now raised $82 million. Zuora plans to use these funds to aggressively expand their distribution activities internationally, specifically in Europe.
The common thread for all of these companies is that they have businesses that are growing rapidly and have built very scalable platforms. With the IPO window open, but the public markets are still uncertain, we will probably see more of these type of IPO-preview type of funding announcements as SaaS firms continue to gain momentum in the market.
I was going to write this post earlier in the week but it seemed that everywhere I turned I saw more developments and wanted to include them. The market is really starting to get frothy and there are many big SaaS/Cloud deals happening and companies going public with very large market caps. Let’s take a look:
SuccessFactors (NASDAQ: SFSF) Acquires Plateau Systems for $290M, which was paid in half cash and half in stock. This is an interesting move since it is the first acquisition that could be considered ‘core’ functionality when compared with other acquisitions like CubeTree (Collaboration), YouCalc (Analytics), Inform (Analytics) and Jambok (eLearning). Plateau also has a fairly significant product portfolio overlap including compensation, performance management and succession planning, so it should be interesting to see how these offerings are consolidated.
Plateau has a very respectable customer-base with a large number of federal government customers as well as many large enterprise customers. The company also was profitable and has some interesting Platform-as-a-Service capabilities that should be very useful for a larger SaaS portfolio.
Based on the market basket of publicly traded SaaS firms, this deal will make SuccessFactors the second largest firm in the group based on current revenues. We estimate that at their current quarterly run-rate of $68M and Plateau’s estimated annual revenues, the combined company now is probably around $340M, which is only second to Salesforce.com.

CenturyLink (NASDAQ: CTL) Buys Savvis (NASDAQ: SVVS) for $2.5B, which is now third largest telecommunications company in the US with $18B in annual revenues. The company had purchased Qwest earlier in the year and that deal was finalized on April 1st. Now with the acquisition of Savvis, CenturyLink is moving into the Cloud Computing market with more than 48 data centers globally.
This is the second major deal in the Cloud Computing market of an emerging Infrastructure-as-a-Service provider, when Verizon purchased Terremark for $1.4B in January. This should stimulate further consolidation of other providers and Rackspace may be the next target.
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Salesforce.com (NASDAQ: CRM) Picks Up Radian6 for $326M for the Canadian social media monitoring company. Radian6 helps their customers monitor ‘hundreds of millions’ of social media conversations. Salesforce believes that the acquisition will enable it to enhance all of its products, including Sales Cloud, Service Cloud, Chatter and Force.com.
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Infor and Golden Gate Capital Buys Lawson Software for $2B. Now this is technically not a SaaS or Cloud related deal but it just is another example of the pressure traditional providers are feeling from the up and coming SaaS and Cloud providers like Netsuite, Workday and even Oracle’s new Fusion offerings.
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Cornerstone OnDemand (NADSAQ: CSOD) went public on March 16th and quickly captured a market cap of $800M, even when the company lost more than $45M. The company offers a suite of Talent Management solutions similar to what is offered by SuccessFactors and Taleo.
ServiceSource International (NASDAQ: SREV) completed their IPO on March 25th and were valued at more than $800M as well. ServiceSource helps companies manage their revenue streams from renewals, maintenance and subscription agreements, which is especially important for SaaS firms.
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Responsys (NASDAQ: MKTG) was able to launch into the public markets on April 21st and got a very respectable market value of $2.4B. The company offers SaaS-based software and services that help retailers and eCommerce firms build and manage online campaigns.
With Cornerstone OnDemand’s recent IPO (NASDAQ: CSOD) and their high valuation based on a negative EBIDTA, many are starting to ask if we are headed for a second Internet or SaaS Bubble?
I do agree that some of the valuations at this point are a lot higher than a reasonable person would expect, but this is probably just pent up interest in the technology sector. It doesn’t help that Facebook and LinkedIn has seriously pumped up the valuations for Internet/Social Media firms, but today’s SaaS companies are very different from the Dot Bombs of 1999/2000.
Remember these companies?
|
Company |
Business |
Market Cap (000’s) |
|
On-line Groceries |
$1,200 |
|
|
On-line Pet Supplies |
$ 325 |
|
|
Marketing |
$5,400 |
|
|
Delivery Services |
Private |
All of these companies were built on bad business models, too much money and expectations that were out of control. And by the way are all out of business.
But not all of the Internet companies that were formed during this period were bombs; in fact there are a number of firms that are now pillars of the technology industry including these firms:
|
Company |
Founded |
Business |
Ticker |
Market Cap (000’s) |
|
1994 |
eCommerce |
$76,380 |
||
|
1996 |
eProcurment |
$ 3,140 |
||
|
1995 |
eCommerce |
$39,370 |
||
|
1995 |
Communications |
$ 1,340 |
||
|
1997 |
eCommerce |
$23,790 |
||
|
1996 |
Health Content |
$ 3,150 |
It would be safe to say that each of these companies struggled during and after the Dot-Com collapse but they were able to modify their models to take advantage of the efficiencies that the Internet provided. Amazon has built a business that can effectively compete against the largest retailer in the world, Walmart, even though its sales are only 1/12th their revenues.
All of these Internet Survivors had to develop a real business model that would deliver solid margins, profits and growth. They each had to assemble experienced management teams, learn how to deliver superior customer service and build trusted brands. Not easy to do, but they did it.
Fast-forward to today and we have a whole new set of Internet and Software-as-a-Service companies that have emerged and gone public including these firms:
|
Company |
Founded |
Business |
Ticker |
Market Cap (000’s) |
|
1997 |
$ 1,560 |
|||
|
1997 |
Education |
$ 1,280 |
||
|
1993 |
Travel & Expense |
$ 2,960 |
||
|
1999 |
Talent Mgmt |
$ 855 |
||
|
1995 |
Marketing |
$ 1,000 |
||
|
1998 |
Search, PaaS |
$187,000 |
||
|
1987 |
Talent Mgmt |
$ 622 |
||
|
1998 |
ERP |
$ 1,880 |
||
|
1997 |
CRM |
$ 1,030 |
||
|
1999 |
CRM, PaaS |
$16,930 |
||
|
Servicesource (2) |
1999 |
Service Mgmt |
$ 774 |
|
|
2001 |
Talent Mgmt |
$ 2,990 |
||
|
1996 |
Talent Mgmt |
$ 1,430 |
||
|
1990 |
Payroll |
$ 1,490 |
||
|
1992 |
Marketing |
$ 478 |
As you can see most of these companies were founded before the Internet Bubble burst and were forced to create real business models that could deliver profits.
At Montclair Advisors, we specialize in SaaS business advisory services and we know many of these firms quite well and they all have strong management teams, growing businesses and staying power. Unlike the Internet firms that went IPO in 1999 or 2000, most of these firms have had to build up their businesses over ten or more years and are based on some form of recurring revenues.
Major differences between the companies on this list versus the early Dot Bomb firms include:
So are the valuations of companies like Cornerstone OnDemand and Servicesource, Facebook and LinkedIn too high? Are we beginning to see a SaaS Bubble? Maybe, but all of these companies have been built for the long term and will be around long after any correction, unlike their early Internet cousins Web Van or Kozmo.com.
It is always hard to predict the future, but here are my 10 Predictions for the SaaS market in 2011, and they might just happen:
A number of large consumer subscription software players including Facebook, Groupon, LinkedIn, Zynga and Skype could really open up the public markets with a major blockbuster IPO (or IPO’s) in 2011. SaaS firms that look to get everyone’s attention with potential IPO’s next year include Cornerstone OnDemand, Workday, Marketo, Service-Now and possibly Plateau.
So my prediction (which is a pure guess) is that SuccessFactors and Taleo finally get over their respective CEO ego issues and decide to merge. Sounds a little crazy, but when you really consider their product portfolios, there might not be as much of an overlap as you might think. SuccessFactors is basically a performance and analytics company and Taleo is a recruiting and learning (after acquiring Learn.com) company. They both have some additional components that could be plugged into to create a more comprehensive suite of CPM and Talent Management offerings.
This would also create a combined company with a market cap approaching (SFSF + TLEO) $4B and annual revenues in excess of $400M, which would be the second largest SaaS firm in the market, and a clear leader in their space. Another potential marriage might be Concur and Ultimate Software.
It seems like most Oracle SaaS rumors involve the acquisition of Salesforce.com, and that may happen some day, but the more likely combination for 2011 is NetSuite. Larry Ellison is a major investor in NetSuite (early investor) and own/controls more that 50% of the company’s shares. He may come to the conclusion that he needs some real SaaS DNA inside of Oracle to help grow their Fusion business in 2011 and beyond.
Similar to the realization that many other major traditional ISV’s will come to in 2011, that they are too far beyond in SaaS to catch up organically, SAP will buy their way into SaaS. The Business ByDesign project for SAP, by some estimates, has cost more than $1 billion and there isn’t much to show for it. I always thought that the Sybase acquisition was just a smoke screen to cover up how little progress has been made with BBD at their most recent Sapphire user meeting. Like Oracle, I think SAP reaches out into the market and purchases a SaaS firm to jump start BBD. RightNow would be an interesting choice since SAP wants to make a splash in the CRM market.
These big software companies are no longer just paying lip service to SaaS or the Cloud, they continue to catch up with the subscription software market transition that is happening everywhere. All sizes of customers who were battered during the recession are no longer interested in spending a lot of capital and time that has been associated with traditional software projects and are becoming increasing comfortable with SaaS. This shift in the Software market is massive and is going to take at least 10 years, and we are probably only in the second year (post-recession) of this shift. Continue to look to see what SaaS moves firms like Oracle, SAP, HP, CA and Infor make in 2011.
Look at Salesforce.com’s recent moves to expand their Force.com Platform-as-a-Service portfolio with VMForce and then buying Ruby on Rails provider Heroku for over $200 million. Beyond Force.com there are many other offerings here today and coming in 2011 including App Engine by Google, Apprenda, Azure by Microsoft, Corent, Engine Yard, Facebook, Flex by Adobe, Fusion by Oracle, Intalio, IPP by Intuit, LongJump, Nimbula, SuiteCloud by NetSuite, and Wolf Frameworks.
As long as traditional ISV’s continue to move towards SaaS, there will be a green field opportunity for all types of PaaS solutions. Look for several of these firms to be acquired in 2011 by larger ISV’s.
After attending Dreamforce this month, it was curious to see a number of Force.com firms offering ERP extensions starting to gain real market momentum. Companies like FinancialForce.com (they purchased Appirio’s PSE business) who are delivering a growing suite of financial and accounting applications, JobScience who continue to build out their Talent Relationship Management suite on Force.com, Less Software who is selling a targeted Supply Chain Management solution and even Remedy’s Service Desk offering, RemedyForce Cloud. If Salesforce offers an attractive exit for any of these firms or their Force.com products, like they did with Heroku, then it might be possible to do a quick roll-up of key partners to create a competitive Cloud-based ERP solution.
Interestingly this type of move might be triggered by Oracle buying Netsuite or Workday going public.
Although Private Clouds might be a viable alternative for enterprises who are looking to leverage the economics of the Cloud, for software companies this type of approach will only provide short term ‘Fake SaaS‘ types of solutions. This type of business model of hosting single-tenant software was known as Application Service Providers (ASP’s) and none of these companies that emerged about 10 years ago were able to find a business model that really scaled profitably. Private Clouds will offer a short term technology transition steps for software companies who are moving away from just offering traditional on-premise software but this trend will really start to fade by later next year.
At Dreamforce ‘10 Salesforce.com announced that they are launching their new Database.com offering, a Database in the Cloud. What was interesting about this news is that Salesforce is really just reselling a private-label version of Oracle’s database technology. For Salesforce this is a unique way to take proven Oracle software, designed for on-premise deployment, and create a true subscription-based version of this product. No doubt that Salesforce will need to do some work to create a massive multi-tenant version of an ORACLE database and then deliver it as a service, but they are already doing this today through their Force.com platform. This could be a significant new revenue stream for both companies and look for other SaaS firms to try OEM’ing their software as a way to improve their CAGRs in 2011.
This should be an interesting year as the economy improves and the SaaS market really begins to gain some serious momentum. It should be a fun time to be in the Software business again.
Kevin Dobbs, Montclair Advisors, LLC
By Kevin Dobbs
The last few months have been quite active in the SaaS market and here are some things that caught my attention:
Who would have believed that we would be seeing Initial Public Offerings after our recent recession but new offerings include SciQuest (NASDAQ: SQI), Qlik Technologies (NASDAQ: QLIK), Ancestory.com (NASDAQ: ACOM) and Financial Engines (NASDAQ: FNGN). There are a number of upcoming IPO’s including Talent Management provider Cornerstone OnDemand.
Company: j2 Global Communications
Started: 1995
Located: Los Angeles, California
Geography: Global – 48 countries
Market: Provider of outsourced, value-added messaging and communication services
Products: eFax, Fax.com, RapidFax, eVoice, eReceptionist, Onebox, and electricm@il
Key Customers: More than 11 million customers
Website: j2 Global Communications
NASDAQ: JCOM
Twitter: @JCOM
Recent News:
Where in the World is eFax®? Everywhere
Phone People(R) Offers Newly Released 855 Toll Free Phone Numbers Tomorrow, October 9th at 12pm EDT
eFax(R) Wireless Faxing Featured in New HP All-in-One Printer
eFax(R) Transforms the Way Documents Do Business
I asked Scott Turicchi, President a few questions about j2 Global’s business and his view of the SaaS market in 2010 and beyond.
Did you start out as a Software-as-a-Service company?
Not exactly. We didn’t get founded based on our technology. The man who spawned the idea for j2 Global Communications was a rock and roll musician born in East Germany named Jaye Muller, who was touring Europe doing concerts. Mueller was writing newsletters about current events but found it difficult to communicate using email, the phone, voicemail or even fax while on the road. Email is location independent but using traditional telephone communications while traveling with the band was a mess.
When Mueller got back to the United States he formulated his business concept and started pitching his idea to investors. Then he went out and obtained some phone numbers and began testing. He found a problem based on his own experience and his assumption was that other people wanted to be location independent and that was why email use was growing so dramatically.
j2 Global Communications, Inc., which was then known as JFax, was founded in late 1995 and started to build out our solution in 1996. The company then extended its geographic reach to London, with the ambition of building a global solution. We then raised our first round of funding in 1997 and then some additional working capital in 1998 and then in 1999 during the crazy Internet days went public. At the time we went public we were only $7M based on our trailing 12 months of revenues, a business that would never be able to do a successful IPO today. Our IPO raised $80M but we have never had to raise any additional capital since then.
Then in 2000, the stock market crashed and we had to find a way to deliver a profitable business with our model. We used our capital to purchase eFax and developed a new more efficient business model that leveraged both indirect channels as well as low cost marketing techniques. We continued to pressure test our model and by 2001 we went from losing cash to making money. Because of the cash constraints on our business due the capital markets, we had no choice but to develop a profitable subscription business model.
Why do your customers buy from j2 Global Communications?
Our founders believed that it didn’t matter whether you are an individual buyer, professional consultant, even worked inside of a large corporation; you wanted the freedom to choose your own business tools. j2 was first to the market and we had to educate the market on the value of services like converting faxes to emails and the advantages of having a broad network.
Because of our target buyer’s desire for freedom of choice, we shifted our model shifted to selling a range of phone, fax and business services that contained administrative tools, attractive pricing, support and overall control. With the ability to monitor and manage a wide range of telephone and fax services, this enabled us to effectively sell to, and retain, larger customers as well as our traditional small and medium target firms. Even today, the majority our customer base are still small businesses, those who purchase fewer than 150 seats.
Our enterprise customers like our financial stability and strength, the fact that we are publicly traded and have healthy cash balances on hand. We are currently running at about $254M in annual revenues with over $260M of cash and no debt, so this provides a lot of comfort to large customers who want to buy and use our services.
Another reason customer buy from j2 Global Communications is that we really understand how to meet their needs around messaging and communications and we have developed expertise around these core competencies and have proven we can deliver over a long period of time. Our company lives and dies by providing our services with a very high level of quality to our customers. This is our core business.
j2 Global Communications has developed strong brand awareness over the last ten years. This has become quite meaningful to us by helping to reduce the cost of running our business because a significant number of leads come to us through customer referrals, which are free leads. Currently about 40% of paid customer signups fall into the ‘free’ categories that we track.
Our sales and marketing teams get a range of investment to go out to the market and generate leads. All of these budgets are based on average revenue per unit (ARPU) and we have found that our Customer Acquisition Costs have almost been cut in half based on the strength of our brand and we can track this directly to our site activity. The investment you put behind your brand, can really be seen over time. It typically takes new brands a lot more marketing investment to build their awareness and generate quality leads.
Our organization tends to be more fiscally conservative but we are very customer-focused and that is how we have built our brand. This business philosophy was born out of necessity, but it has really paid big dividends for us over time.
What do you see as the key trend emerging in the SaaS industry?
For our company, the big trend we see is that large enterprise customers are willing to outsource more of their services to SaaS providers like j2 Global Communications. This willingness is especially true for global companies who no longer want to maintain PBX’s or fax servers; it just doesn’t make financial sense for them anymore.
The SaaS wave is real and thanks to the Great Recession, cost pressures have made the SaaS value proposition very attractive to all sizes of organizations. Big guys are really open to SaaS. Then there is huge opportunity for SMB’s who are looking for big boy software but only need 70-80% of the functionality. These firms also like the ability to pay-as-you-go model and that they don’t need any technical expertise to use our services.
What is your outlook for the balance of 2010?
We have been cautious. My thesis for 2010 has been that it is directionally better than 2009, and generally positive. j2 will re-engage from a sales and marketing perspective but we continue to monitor our business metrics such as customers, sales and other external macro-economic data on an ongoing basis, and we can re-evaluate our tactics every 30-60 days based on any changes in the economy.
Since everyone is interested in SaaS funding and valuations I thought it would be helpful to tell you about an interesting Cloud Computing investor panel I attended at the recent All About the Cloud conference in SF. The session was moderated by Jason Green from Emergence Capital Partners and was joined by Gary Hromadko from Crosslink Capital, Mark McNay from William Blair and Evangelos Simoudis from Trident Capital.
So what did they have to say?
The market has finally changed for the better
2009 was all about survival and the venture community did less than half the investments than in a typical year.
This year is now about growing again and current investments are more focused on companies that have weathered the economic downturn. Their investments are focused on changing the slope of these types of company’s growth curves, by concentrating more on sales and marketing.
SaaS and Cloud companies are leading the way
Consumers have been driving the adoption of easier to use Cloud-based solutions like eBay, iTunes, Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn. They are viral and can reach critical mass very quickly because there are low barriers to adoption.
With SaaS, the recession has really pushed the advantages of a subscription business model and moving from CapEx to OpEx software investments. It’s like leasing your car rather than buying it.
Lean start-ups are definitely in. Almost all early stage software investments in 2009-10 are Cloud-based because it takes a fair amount of capital to fund SaaS firms and it takes a long time for them to reach profitability. One interesting comment was that later stage on-premise companies are now being asked about what their SaaS/Cloud strategy is for the future, because without it, they may find funding might be difficult.
What the VC’s are looking for
SaaS 1.0 focused on a company’s income statement, expenses and cash flows than GAAP reported financials. One important measurement is a company’s incremental contribution margins (gross margins), which is critical for SaaS. Companies needed to balance capital efficiency with building a business that can scale.
Investors are looking for unique business processes that can only be built or automated through SaaS or the Cloud. Emergence latest investments are pure Cloud-based companies that have viral qualities like YouSendit, the files sharing company and Yammer and the enterprise micro-blogging firm, both of these companies are viral enterprise solutions. Yammer has more than 70,000 customers with at least 1 user and is signing up between 7-10,000 users a month and 10% are turning into paying customers. Crosslink invested in Carbonite, a backup and recovery company, has high margins and is the only other independent player in the category with Mozy, who is owned by EMC. They felt that scarcity of competitors and their ability to manage Customer Acquisition Costs were important in establishing the company’s value.
The panelists also said they are looking for companies that have a rigorous focus on metrics like Customer Lifetime Value and Customer Acquisition Costs. In fact CAC appears to drive business value because it has a lot to do with capital efficiency and the company’s ability to grow their business.
Exits, IPO’s and Valuations
Economy has recovered and CEO’s are ready to start taking on more risk, and it’s a real change in psychology because we are at the beginning of a macro trend that will last more than 10 years.
This is evident by more than 100 M&A transactions last quarter including high profile deals like IBM buying CastIron, Salesforce buying Jigsaw for $142M, Successfactors buying CubeTree for $50M. The current environment is right for deals, especially as SaaS is gaining enterprise momentum with recent deals like SuccessFactors’ mega deal with Walmart for 1.6M users. Transactions like Jigsaw, CubeTree, and CA’s purchase of 3Tera and Nimsoft for $350M all indicate a return to a healthy M&A atmosphere, that will probably last for the next 12-18 months.
Oracle and SAP won’t be aggressive on the M&A front until they come to the realization that they can’t build Cloud solutions internally. Because many SaaS companies have now crossed the $25-30M in recurring revenues threshold, these firms may become quite attractive to these larger ISV’s looking to make the move to the SaaS business model.
But these acquirers don’t want to take on the burn associated with many start-ups so it will be important to stay close to breakeven and you may have to sacrifice growth for profitability. Since the access to capital is still tight, start-ups will have to try and collect cash upfront and continue to tune their business models to improve cash flows.
Companies that seem to own a category have perceived scarcity value which will result in a premium on any transaction, especially if they are perceived to own a segment franchise. VC’s and acquirers are looking for a minimum of 40% CAGR to get a premium valuation.
On the other side of the liquidity front, the IPO window for SaaS companies is beginning to open up and firms like SolarWinds and LogMeIn have now been joined by SPS Commerce and Convio. At least before the recent stock market downturn, these companies had traded up by 15% since their IPOs.
The panel seemed to believe that the market is definitely getting better and that is good news for SaaS and Cloud Computing companies looking for funding or an exit!
When speaking with entrepreneurs and investors about the investment required to start up a new Software-as-a-Service company, I often refer back to this list. At Montclair Advisors thought this would be a handy reference for those looking to start a SaaS company during 2010.
Looks like you might need a money tree to start a SaaS company, but for those that reach critical mass and go public, there is a tremendous payback. This is information has been gathered from various sources including Wachovia, CrunchBase and Google Finance.
| Company | Investment | Current Market Cap | Ticker Symbol |
| (in 000’s) | (in 000’s) | ||
| Blackboard | $100.7M | $1,300M | BBBB |
| Concur | $30.2M | $2,100M | CNQR |
| Constant Contact | $37.3M | $527M | CTCT |
| DealerTrack | $48.0M | $774M | TRAK |
| Kenexa | $54.5M | $256M | KNXA |
| LivePerson | $41.6M | $335M | LPSN |
| LogMeIn | $20.0M | $448M | LOGM |
| NetSuite | $84.9M | $1,000M | N |
| RightNow | $32.2M | $553M | RNOW |
| Salary.com | $5.7M | $40M | SLRY |
| Salesforce.com | $64.5M | $8,500M | CRM |
| SuccessFactors | $54.5M | $1,100M | SFSF |
| Taleo | $36.9M | $891M | TLEO |
| Ultimate Software | $25.1M | $755M | ULTI |
| Vocus | $26.4M | $345M | VOCS |