Seems like we were just here a few months ago but a lot of things have happened since the last Oracle OpenWorld in 2009.

It was great to see a full house of exhibitors that consumed most of the Moscone center in San Francisco. Walking through the two completely full tradeshow floors, which indicates some degree of growth in the broader technology market, especially after I saw a number of mega-booths with a lot of promotional events.

Fusion Applications

I didn’t see the Sunday keynote with Larry Ellison, but I heard multiple times that he announced everything at that session.  It appeared that area that SaaS followers were keenly interested in learning more about was Fusion and as one analyst mentioned to me it, ‘Larry mentioned a couple of the new Fusion Apps and then went Yada Yada Yada for the rest of them.’  His opinion was the anytime you Yada Yada anything that means you are not taking it seriously.  Well maybe.

It sounds like Oracle is taking Fusion serious, having invested close to $4B in R&D during 2010 alone,  in order to be ready to launch these next generation apps.  Oracle is offering 100 modules and over 7 different product families including Financials, Procurement, Sourcing, Project and Portfolio Management, HCM, CRM and SCM. We will see over the next few days if there is real detail and deliverables around all of this investment in Fusion or just more Yada Yada.

If Oracle plays this correctly, they will be able to cash in on the buying public’s shift to OPEX spending rather than traditional capital spending on software, which is no longer in vogue.  Fusion applications could be a viable alternative to smaller more risky best-of-breed application alternatives, but they need to be both pure-SaaS and functionally complete.  We will know over next few days.

Riding Hurd

I personally think that Oracle’s hiring of Mark Hurd was a true master stroke, and a major mistake on the part of HP for letting him go.  Mark kicked off the Monday keynote session and he looked like he had worked at Oracle for years, brimming with confidence and very comfortable.  It is also clear that having someone with his knowledge of the hardware world at the helm, is a major advantage, with all of the Sun technology now firmly part of the Oracle ‘Full Stack’ offerings.

We saw a fully buzzword set of presentations this morning; OLTP, Petabyte, threads, cores, and ZFS to name a few.  Speeds and feeds were the name of the game and Mark Hurd and John Fowler discussed the new Exadata 2 and Exalogic products.  Oracle loves fast products and breaking records, so owning the entire technology stack is going to be fun for Larry.   It is interesting that all of these really fast “Full Stack” products will be huge advances and will definitely improve the performance and scalability of future Cloud Computing services, offered by Oracle and others.

M&A in the Air

There have been a number of deals in the technology space over the past 30 days including HP purchasing both 3PAR and ArcSight for close to $4B.  In the HCM space there have been a very rapid spat of deals including one announced between SumTotal Systems purchasing Softscape, Taleo purchasing Learn.com, Kenexa buys Salary.com and Stepstone picks up MrTed.  One has to wonder if there won’t be a big announcement at Larry’s Wednesday afternoon keynote.  I have heard that Oracle might buy Netsuite, which is interesting considering that Larrry already owns about 65% of the company.  Considering Salesforce.com is speaking and exhibiting here at OpenWorld that might be sort of embarassing to everyone concerned.  It might also not be a ringing endorsement of Fusion either, but we will wait and have to see what happens.

More from OpenWorld tomorrow.

After working at Oracle for almost five years in the early 90’s, I can tell you that when Larry sets his mind to something he usually gets it.

Let’s take a trip down memory lane…

It started by just plain beating your competition at sales and marketing.  Remember, crush Ingres, destroy Informix, smash Sybase … they were close to dead and Larry let them slip away.  He would have obliterated DB2 and SQLServer but IBM and Microsoft were too big.  Still he ended up owning the database market.

With the database market securely in his grasp, he started looking to other places where data resided… Ah, applications.   Larry had always said that Oracle didn’t care about applications and that they were focused only on the database market.  Then starting in 2005, he started his assault on the applications market first with Retek, then PeopleSoft, J.D. Edwards, Portal, Siebel and then Hyperion.  SAP is too big to take out and you still need an aspirational competitor anyway.

Humm… if you combine middleware into databases, you probably would sell more databases… then he acquired BEA and Agile.

In September 2008, Larry ranted about “What the Hell is Cloud Computing?”  Then just a few months ago Oracle buys Sun Microsystems and is arguably now one of the leading Cloud Computing providers.  I guess the ‘Network really is the Computer‘.  Now with his new toy Exadata, he is going after Teradata but when he gets his new toys from Sun - Java, MySQL, storage, grid computing, virtualization - he will have a lot of Cloud Computing fun.   It will be interesting to see if Oracle keeps the hardware part of Sun or spins it out to his friends at HP.

So now we come to SaaS.

The battle between mentor and protege.  Marc Benioff, with the help of Larry Ellison, has done a phenomenal job launching the leading Software-as-a-Service firm, Salesforce.com and creating the entire SaaS industry.  At Oracle’s earnings call last week Larry claimed that although Salesforce.com is the largest SaaS firm at $1 billion annual run rate, and Oracle is now the second largest SaaS provider at an $750 million annual run rate.  This included some high profile wins for their CRM on-demand offering last quarter including NetApps, McAfee, Land O’Lakes and Conoco.   But I can imagine that Salesforce.com won their unfair share of the on-demand CRM deals last quarter.

Oracle Fusion finally arrives.

What I found interesting is that the new Oracle Fusion suite of applications is now code complete and in beta.  This means it will be available from an Oracle sales rep near you in the fall. Oracle Fusion is on-demand ready and will offer three delivery models; traditional On-Premise, SaaS and then there is On-Premise SaaS.   On-premise SaaS, is that like military intelligence? This is usually and incredibly bad idea unless you are a $23 billion dollar company that generates more than $5 billion in profits.  The new Oracle SaaS suite will all ERP modules including CRM and HCM applications focused mainly on F1000 sized organizations.

Even though Fusion might be a positive development for the Oracle On-Demand sales team, it is doubtful this will be enough to enable Oracle to control the SaaS market organically.   So look for Oracle do what they have always done when they want to control a market, buy their way to the top.  That would mean that some Oracle alumni’s like Marc Benioff or NetSuite’s (Larry and his family own a majority of Netsuite) Zack Nelson will probably be on Uncle Larry’s radar screen.  This is just like other Oracle alumni’s Craig Conway from Peoplesoft - who is also on the board of directors of Salesforce.com and Tom Siebel were pursued.

I guess in the end if you can’t beat’em, join’em.

Looks like someone is assuming an attack formation … the end of 2009 should be very interesting for the ever-evolving SaaS market landscape.