As it turned out I was right about 50% of my predictions last year, so here’s my educated guesses for what is going to happen to the SaaS market in 2012:
#10 Oracle will buy Netsuite.
I know this isn’t much of a surprise since Larry Ellison owns approximately 65% of Netsuite, but with the RightNow acquisition, this type of move makes more sense as part of coordinated Cloud acquisition strategy.
#9 SaaS IPO window remains open.
There are a number of SaaS firms who have either filed, like Eloqua, or are seriously considering going public in 2012, like Workday, Dropbox, Box, and Guidewire. This window can be opened even wider by successful IPO’s from companies like Yelp and Facebook. The only problem is that there are over 100 companies who have already filed to go public in 2012, so it might be difficult for smaller SaaS firms to do their IPO.
#8. Master brands will continue to chase SaaS offerings.
IBM just purchased DemandTec and SAP bought SuccessFactors, while Oracle bought RightNow. This is a big change from 2010 when most of these companies were not interested in the Cloud or SaaS. All of these master brands have tried to build their own SaaS businesses, but I think they have now finally realized that SaaS is a business model, not just new technology. The smart firms will keep their SaaS businesses and their core license businesses separate and not try and merge them. Good luck.
#7. Workday will have a monster IPO.
There is no doubt that the 2012 IPO of Facebook will set all sorts of records but for enterprise software, I think Workday will be one of the biggest on record. The company just took in $85 million in funding over the past few months, in what was termed an IPO preview round. Workday could raise as much as $500 million in an IPO, which would force the big ERP players to start building out their SaaS businesses as a defensive strategy at the bare minimum.
#6. SaaS starts to go global.
I was involved in an Oracle SaaS webinar a couple of weeks ago for an audience in Europe and the response was really impressive. I initially thought that most of the registrants would be from the UK, the Netherlands, Germany and Scandinavia. Actually there were attendees from almost every country in Europe. I have also started to hear about strong SaaS interest in Australia, New Zealand, Brazil, Japan, China and many other countries. 2012 will just continue to build on the SaaS market’s growing global momentum.
#5. Salesforce continues to expand beyond CRM.
During 2011 Salesforce purchased several firms that added new capabilities to their platform including DimDim (collaboration), Radian6 (social analytics), Model Metrics (mobility) and then they bought Rypple in December, which launched them into the Human Capital market. I predict that Salesforce will add several other HCM tuck-in acquisitions (JobScience, Jobvite), financial applications (FinancialForce, Zuora), or even supply chain management (Glovia OM, Kenandy).
#4. IT Management and Security SaaS offerings emerge.
Companies like CA have been successful in launching their new Nimsoft ITM SaaS offering during 2011, but there are also many other firms that are beginning to gain momentum with their new SaaS offerings as well. This is a very big market opportunity to replace existing legacy infrastructure and security offerings. Companies to watch include Service-Now, Trustwave, Splunk, PingIdentity and Proofpoint.
(Note: CA/Nimsoft and PingIdentity are Montclair Advisors clients)
#3. SaaS continues to be social.
With Jive going public during December 2011, they are just the most recent example of SaaS social applications gaining market acceptance. Salesforce has been very successful with their Chatter and Radian6 offerings. Independents like Yammer, SocialCast, Lithium and CentralDesktop will continue to see increased demand for their social/collaboration platforms.
#2. More big VC rounds for SaaS firms.
2012 will continue to see VC’s put a lot of money to work with leading SaaS companies. We saw some major investments during 2011 including Box ($81 million), Dropbox ($250 million), HubSpot ($32 million), Marketo ($50 million), Workday ($85 million) and Zuora ($35 million). This trend will continue in 2012 and companies will be putting a lot of money to work to build out their platforms and distribution capabilities.
#1. Storage is a major story for 2012.
As more and more data is stored in the Cloud, consumers and businesses are looking to all different types of on-line storage services. During the year that Apple launched its iCloud small business and music storage service, we also saw major funding rounds for SaaS companies including Dropbox and Box. We even saw a new IPO from Carbonite that provides a small business/consumer Cloud back-up service. This is definitely a segment of the SaaS market to keep an eye on in 2012.
By Kevin Dobbs
Montclair Advisors, LLC
Now that many software companies really feel that the risks associated with a second recession are firmly in the rearview mirror, it now seems like everyone is looking to grow their businesses.
I read a great post yesterday by Bruce Cleveland at InterWest Ventures about the Value of Growth for SaaS Companies, which I thought really accurately captured a challenge that many software firms face when transitioning to a SaaS model. This is a subject that is near and dear to me given my background as a reformed marketing executive and someone who was responsible lead generation at Oracle years ago during the Tom Siebel and Marc Benioff era. I think it was Tom Siebel when he was running Oracle’s inside sales team that told me “I want it to rain leads from the sky!” At the time I was actually shocked because he was asking me to literally drown his sales team with qualified opportunities who wanted to buy Oracle’s database products.
As I have come to learn that he knew exactly what he was talking about and his track record demonstrates that productive sales teams deliver amazing revenue growth results. Bruce’s post highlights that a SaaS company without meaningful growth is not worth very much and probably will fetch the low-end of the valuation curve, which is still pretty good in today’s crazy market (See last week’s post about the SaaS Bubble). So how are high flying SaaS companies like Salesforce and SuccessFactors achieving CAGR’s in excess of 30% every year? Check out this chart I put together on some of the leading publicly traded SaaS firms (sans Salesforce because they will skew the chart):
As you can see the companies with the higher growth rates are also the ones that have high market caps (valued more highly by Wall Street). What is really interesting is that SuccessFactors was able to grow by almost 50% for the past three years, even through one of the worst recessions in the last 100 years. The value of growth can also been seen by a company that recently went public, Cornerstone OnDemand, they have been rewarded with a market cap that is over $800M even though the company lost more than $40M last year. Seems crazy right? But they have a great organic growth story along with a major channel relationship with ADP which could also signal even faster growth in the future.
If you talk to any software sales rep they often complain about their pipeline and the lack of quality leads. Reminds me of those coveted Glengarry leads from Mitch and Murray downtown. So at the heart of all of these companies and their rapid growth rates is that they have all developed a core competency to generate high quality leads and build pipelines quickly.
(click on picture to see clip)
Here are some tricks that I have learned along the way that will help you to build out your SaaS lead generation strategies:
With Cornerstone OnDemand’s recent IPO (NASDAQ: CSOD) and their high valuation based on a negative EBIDTA, many are starting to ask if we are headed for a second Internet or SaaS Bubble?
I do agree that some of the valuations at this point are a lot higher than a reasonable person would expect, but this is probably just pent up interest in the technology sector. It doesn’t help that Facebook and LinkedIn has seriously pumped up the valuations for Internet/Social Media firms, but today’s SaaS companies are very different from the Dot Bombs of 1999/2000.
Remember these companies?
|
Company |
Business |
Market Cap (000’s) |
|
On-line Groceries |
$1,200 |
|
|
On-line Pet Supplies |
$ 325 |
|
|
Marketing |
$5,400 |
|
|
Delivery Services |
Private |
All of these companies were built on bad business models, too much money and expectations that were out of control. And by the way are all out of business.
But not all of the Internet companies that were formed during this period were bombs; in fact there are a number of firms that are now pillars of the technology industry including these firms:
|
Company |
Founded |
Business |
Ticker |
Market Cap (000’s) |
|
1994 |
eCommerce |
$76,380 |
||
|
1996 |
eProcurment |
$ 3,140 |
||
|
1995 |
eCommerce |
$39,370 |
||
|
1995 |
Communications |
$ 1,340 |
||
|
1997 |
eCommerce |
$23,790 |
||
|
1996 |
Health Content |
$ 3,150 |
It would be safe to say that each of these companies struggled during and after the Dot-Com collapse but they were able to modify their models to take advantage of the efficiencies that the Internet provided. Amazon has built a business that can effectively compete against the largest retailer in the world, Walmart, even though its sales are only 1/12th their revenues.
All of these Internet Survivors had to develop a real business model that would deliver solid margins, profits and growth. They each had to assemble experienced management teams, learn how to deliver superior customer service and build trusted brands. Not easy to do, but they did it.
Fast-forward to today and we have a whole new set of Internet and Software-as-a-Service companies that have emerged and gone public including these firms:
|
Company |
Founded |
Business |
Ticker |
Market Cap (000’s) |
|
1997 |
$ 1,560 |
|||
|
1997 |
Education |
$ 1,280 |
||
|
1993 |
Travel & Expense |
$ 2,960 |
||
|
1999 |
Talent Mgmt |
$ 855 |
||
|
1995 |
Marketing |
$ 1,000 |
||
|
1998 |
Search, PaaS |
$187,000 |
||
|
1987 |
Talent Mgmt |
$ 622 |
||
|
1998 |
ERP |
$ 1,880 |
||
|
1997 |
CRM |
$ 1,030 |
||
|
1999 |
CRM, PaaS |
$16,930 |
||
|
Servicesource (2) |
1999 |
Service Mgmt |
$ 774 |
|
|
2001 |
Talent Mgmt |
$ 2,990 |
||
|
1996 |
Talent Mgmt |
$ 1,430 |
||
|
1990 |
Payroll |
$ 1,490 |
||
|
1992 |
Marketing |
$ 478 |
As you can see most of these companies were founded before the Internet Bubble burst and were forced to create real business models that could deliver profits.
At Montclair Advisors, we specialize in SaaS business advisory services and we know many of these firms quite well and they all have strong management teams, growing businesses and staying power. Unlike the Internet firms that went IPO in 1999 or 2000, most of these firms have had to build up their businesses over ten or more years and are based on some form of recurring revenues.
Major differences between the companies on this list versus the early Dot Bomb firms include:
So are the valuations of companies like Cornerstone OnDemand and Servicesource, Facebook and LinkedIn too high? Are we beginning to see a SaaS Bubble? Maybe, but all of these companies have been built for the long term and will be around long after any correction, unlike their early Internet cousins Web Van or Kozmo.com.
It is always hard to predict the future, but here are my 10 Predictions for the SaaS market in 2011, and they might just happen:
A number of large consumer subscription software players including Facebook, Groupon, LinkedIn, Zynga and Skype could really open up the public markets with a major blockbuster IPO (or IPO’s) in 2011. SaaS firms that look to get everyone’s attention with potential IPO’s next year include Cornerstone OnDemand, Workday, Marketo, Service-Now and possibly Plateau.
So my prediction (which is a pure guess) is that SuccessFactors and Taleo finally get over their respective CEO ego issues and decide to merge. Sounds a little crazy, but when you really consider their product portfolios, there might not be as much of an overlap as you might think. SuccessFactors is basically a performance and analytics company and Taleo is a recruiting and learning (after acquiring Learn.com) company. They both have some additional components that could be plugged into to create a more comprehensive suite of CPM and Talent Management offerings.
This would also create a combined company with a market cap approaching (SFSF + TLEO) $4B and annual revenues in excess of $400M, which would be the second largest SaaS firm in the market, and a clear leader in their space. Another potential marriage might be Concur and Ultimate Software.
It seems like most Oracle SaaS rumors involve the acquisition of Salesforce.com, and that may happen some day, but the more likely combination for 2011 is NetSuite. Larry Ellison is a major investor in NetSuite (early investor) and own/controls more that 50% of the company’s shares. He may come to the conclusion that he needs some real SaaS DNA inside of Oracle to help grow their Fusion business in 2011 and beyond.
Similar to the realization that many other major traditional ISV’s will come to in 2011, that they are too far beyond in SaaS to catch up organically, SAP will buy their way into SaaS. The Business ByDesign project for SAP, by some estimates, has cost more than $1 billion and there isn’t much to show for it. I always thought that the Sybase acquisition was just a smoke screen to cover up how little progress has been made with BBD at their most recent Sapphire user meeting. Like Oracle, I think SAP reaches out into the market and purchases a SaaS firm to jump start BBD. RightNow would be an interesting choice since SAP wants to make a splash in the CRM market.
These big software companies are no longer just paying lip service to SaaS or the Cloud, they continue to catch up with the subscription software market transition that is happening everywhere. All sizes of customers who were battered during the recession are no longer interested in spending a lot of capital and time that has been associated with traditional software projects and are becoming increasing comfortable with SaaS. This shift in the Software market is massive and is going to take at least 10 years, and we are probably only in the second year (post-recession) of this shift. Continue to look to see what SaaS moves firms like Oracle, SAP, HP, CA and Infor make in 2011.
Look at Salesforce.com’s recent moves to expand their Force.com Platform-as-a-Service portfolio with VMForce and then buying Ruby on Rails provider Heroku for over $200 million. Beyond Force.com there are many other offerings here today and coming in 2011 including App Engine by Google, Apprenda, Azure by Microsoft, Corent, Engine Yard, Facebook, Flex by Adobe, Fusion by Oracle, Intalio, IPP by Intuit, LongJump, Nimbula, SuiteCloud by NetSuite, and Wolf Frameworks.
As long as traditional ISV’s continue to move towards SaaS, there will be a green field opportunity for all types of PaaS solutions. Look for several of these firms to be acquired in 2011 by larger ISV’s.
After attending Dreamforce this month, it was curious to see a number of Force.com firms offering ERP extensions starting to gain real market momentum. Companies like FinancialForce.com (they purchased Appirio’s PSE business) who are delivering a growing suite of financial and accounting applications, JobScience who continue to build out their Talent Relationship Management suite on Force.com, Less Software who is selling a targeted Supply Chain Management solution and even Remedy’s Service Desk offering, RemedyForce Cloud. If Salesforce offers an attractive exit for any of these firms or their Force.com products, like they did with Heroku, then it might be possible to do a quick roll-up of key partners to create a competitive Cloud-based ERP solution.
Interestingly this type of move might be triggered by Oracle buying Netsuite or Workday going public.
Although Private Clouds might be a viable alternative for enterprises who are looking to leverage the economics of the Cloud, for software companies this type of approach will only provide short term ‘Fake SaaS‘ types of solutions. This type of business model of hosting single-tenant software was known as Application Service Providers (ASP’s) and none of these companies that emerged about 10 years ago were able to find a business model that really scaled profitably. Private Clouds will offer a short term technology transition steps for software companies who are moving away from just offering traditional on-premise software but this trend will really start to fade by later next year.
At Dreamforce ‘10 Salesforce.com announced that they are launching their new Database.com offering, a Database in the Cloud. What was interesting about this news is that Salesforce is really just reselling a private-label version of Oracle’s database technology. For Salesforce this is a unique way to take proven Oracle software, designed for on-premise deployment, and create a true subscription-based version of this product. No doubt that Salesforce will need to do some work to create a massive multi-tenant version of an ORACLE database and then deliver it as a service, but they are already doing this today through their Force.com platform. This could be a significant new revenue stream for both companies and look for other SaaS firms to try OEM’ing their software as a way to improve their CAGRs in 2011.
This should be an interesting year as the economy improves and the SaaS market really begins to gain some serious momentum. It should be a fun time to be in the Software business again.
Kevin Dobbs, Montclair Advisors, LLC
By Kevin Dobbs
Montclair Advisors, LLC
When thinking about your transition to SaaS, there are many questions to consider including target customers, value propositions, packaging, pricing and how best to build customer relationships.
After conducting more than 50 Smart SaaS business profiles of all different types including pure SaaS, Hybrids and Cross-Overs, all of these companies would probably answer many of these types of questions differently depending on their type of customer, functionality, geography, vertical markets and the only way they can get useful answers is to continually test everything. Best in class SaaS firms are always trying different pricing, packages, messages in order to optimize their businesses, like a recent firm we profiled - Clarizen.
Some resources when thinking about these types of considerations include:
Software Pricing Partners - Jim Geisman
Chaotic Flow - Joel York
Sixteen Ventures - Lincoln Murphy
4 Pillars of SaaS - Phil Wainewright, ZDNet
In addition to testing, it is a good idea to measure everything including website traffic, marketing campaigns, product usage, customer satisfaction and a myriad of other SaaS and business metrics. Again, the best firms track and monitor all the key business metrics in order to improve their ability to generate revenues, build market share and reduce unnecessary customer churn. SaaS requires a very tight operational model and has moved business an art to a science and now there are an entire new class to tools to improve revenue performance and reduce costs. Some of these next generation of tools include:
Sales Automation
EchoSign - Provides electronic signature and contract management.
InsideView - Sales business intelligence and social media platform.
JigSaw - Business information and data services.
NetSuite - CRM and ERP suite.
RightNow - CRM, call center and social platform.
Salesforce.com - Salesforce is not only a solid Customer Relationship Management system but also a great system of record for all types of sales, marketing and service information and applications. Also offers a application marketplace that provides value added extensions. Salesforce also offers Chatter a collaboration platform to improve internal communications.
SugarCRM - Open source based CRM that provides a robust no cost solution.
Marketing Automation
Eloqua - Marketing automation platform.
Genius.com - Sales and lead automation.
MarketBright - Marketing and lead generation management.
Marketo - Marketing and revenue management.
Pardot - Business to Business lead automation.
SaaS Analytics
Birst - On demand business intelligence product.
Cloud9 Analytics - SaaS performance management.
GoodData - SaaS business intelligence product.
PivotLink - On demand business intelligence product.
Using many of these tools companies can help a SaaS firm track their business, sales and marketing performance. The question that I often get is ‘what should I be tracking?’ There are an emerging set of SaaS-based business metrics that include Monthly Recurring Revenues (MRR), Churn, Customer Acquisition Costs (CAC), The Magic Number (MN) and others that provide very precise views into how a SaaS business is performing. Here is a chart that details some of the more common SaaS business metrics by functional area:
Other resources to learn about SaaS metrics;
5 C’s of SaaS Finance - Bessemer Ventures
Chaotic Flow - Joel York
For Entrepreneaurs - David Skok, Matrix Partners
Haut Tech - Michael Dunham at Scio Development
My opinion about the SaaS business model is that there are a lot of new considerations about building a profitable subscription business today. The buyers are different, there are many robust low-cost tools available, Cloud technology that can radically change your cost model and time to market as well as many other business factors, so the only real way to really tune your business for SaaS is to continually test everything!
I would be interested in your comments and hearing about what you are testing.
Stay tuned for Tip #4 Sales & Marketing on a Budget
By Kevin Dobbs
Montclair Advisors, LLC
Let’s face it, Hunters and Farmers are very different types of sales people. One is into the thrill of the chase and the high anxiety of selling the next big deal. The other is into cultivating relationships, building communities and patience.
When it comes to sales people inside of a SaaS company, these same attributes apply to this team as well. Trying to get your major account or direct sales reps to effectively manage your existing accounts and still hit an aggressive quota, that usually doesn’t work that well. The same holds true if you are trying to get your account managers to push their customers to close a big deal, and they just don’t want to push too hard because they might ruin their relationship. Then why are you trying to get them to do the same job?
The other big difference is usually how these sales professionals get compensated. A typical software sales rep will have a $1.5-$3M annual quota and want to make at least $200K, where as an account manager might have a much smaller quota, $300-$750K and be making $110-150K. That’s because they have different skill sets but both types of sales are critically important when building your SaaS sales team. Philippe Botteri from BVP discusses what Gary Messiana an EIR told him about how he compensated his reps for delivering MRR:
The second thing he did was to define was the ramp up of the commission rate to make sure the best sales rep would get the most upside. To do that, he applied another simple rule:
I like the simplicity of the concept and it can be applied to all types of sales roles.
Depending on the type of products/services you are selling, you may actually not have high priced outside sales reps and actually focus more on building out a low cost tele-sales capability. Even if you do this, you should still separate out your new sales team from your account management teams. Because SaaS is perfect for the ‘penetrate and radiate‘ sales model, you need teams that can sell that first product and then another team that keeps the customer happy and renewing as well as buying more products and services.
Bessemer Venture’s 10 Laws for being SaaSy also recommends separating your hunters from your farmers. It is important to be able to find new customers but it is also important to be able to renew, upsell and cross-sell customers additional products, which will increase your company’s Monthly Recurring Revenues. This well defined sales structure works well with many of the leading SaaS firms including RightNow and Salesforce.com.
One of the big objections about this type of approach is that if forces the customer to deal with two different sales teams. Although this can be a problem, I have found that these types of channel conflicts can be remedied by using team based compensation plans that have everyone getting paid based on shared goals related to existing customers. This type of approach also encourages development of up-sells/cross-sell opportunities by the account management team, since they often require the new sales team to engage in these deals and close them. The team compensation approach means everyone wins, including the customer.
I keep coming back to skills and personalities when structuring your SaaS organization. Keep your teams small and focused. Make sure you have ways for those promising team members, who might start out in tele-marketing or account management, to have a path to progress up the sales food chain. Just make sure that your organization structure is well defined, there are clear rules of engagement and that that compensation plans encourage your sales teams to work together and keep your customers satisfied.
Stay tuned for Tip #3 Test Everything
After our post on January 26th we got several great comments about the cost of starting a SaaS company. It definitely takes a commitment to build a true SaaS company, especially when you consider some the following facts about the 15 public companies that I tracked in my high level analysis:
The costs of getting a SaaS start-up off the ground are substantial but only about half of the firms we tracked actually started out as a pure SaaS company. These other Cross-Over firms started out as either Application Service Providers (ASP’s) or were traditional On-premise ISV’s that move to SaaS through a combination of organic migration or through a series of acquisitions. Companies like Concur, Kenexa, Taleo and Ultimate Software have all transitioned to SaaS from an on-premise heritage.
The shortest time to go from start-up phase to an IPO was 4 years and the longest was 13 years. Most of the firms we tracked were founded between 1997 to 1999, which was prior and during the Internet Bubble.
When these firms went public they raised a range between $30M (LivePerson and Ultimate Software) to over $150M (DealerTrack and NetSuite), but on average they raised about $75M. All the firms then went on to do additional capital raises from $32M (LivePerson) up to $750M (DealerTrack) but on average each raised $243M! The total capital raised, when considering both pre IPO, IPO and post IPO capital raised, these firms raised between $100M (LivePerson and Ultimate Software) to close to more than $500M (DealerTrack, Salesforce.com and SuccessFactors).
After going public, this SaaS market basket of companies have done well as a group. The majority of the firms are profitable, which makes for solid cash flow performance, revenue visibility and overall stability of the company’s stock, for the real SaaS firms.
The most valuable company, based on their Market Cap is Salesforce.com at more than $8B and there are at least 4 other SaaS firms with valuations over $1B (Blackboard, Concur, NetSuite and SuccessFactors). When comparing the amount of capital raised to the market valuation, the 5 best performing firms are Salesforce.com (.09), Ultimate Software (.13) , Concur (.19), RightNow (.22) and LivePerson (.31).
This year, as the economy improves, promises to launch a few new SaaS IPOs and we will continue to track this core group as well as a larger group of Hybrids and Cross Overs and will periodically report back with our findings.
Company: RightNow
Started: 1997
Located: Bozeman, Montana
Geography: Global
Market: On-Demand Customer Relationship Management
Products: RightNow CRM Suite RightNow Service RightNow Marketing RightNow Sales
Key Customers: Drugstore.com, TomTom and Electronic Arts
Website: RightNow
Blog: Voice of the Customer
Recent News:
I asked Greg Gianforte, RightNow Chief Executive Officer a few questions about his business and his view of the SaaS market in 2009.
Did you start out as a Software-as-a-Service company?
RightNow has been a pioneer of SaaS / On-Demand technology since our company inception in 1997. Our underlying services are built to dynamically scale our client’s customer service and support up or down as they need. Unlike other providers, our solution is built to deliver exceptional experiences to our customers across service, marketing and sales interactions.
Why do your customers buy from RightNow?
RightNow’s on demand hosted CRM business model delivers quick time-to-benefit and helps our clients reduce operating costs, improve customer experience, retention and advocacy, and maintain a competitive edge.
What do you see as the key trend emerging in the SaaS industry?
As Cloud Computing gains momentum, it will become even more vital for a SaaS company to stand behind its service commitments since they are responsible for system reliability and performance. Customers are expecting a high level of availability and providers are using their ability to deliver as a competitive advantage.
RightNow recently announced an ‘up-time’ commitment to our customers of 99.9%, forcing our team to take uptime seriously, and making sure the right level of attention is being paid to the issue.
No amount of “money back” will take the place of performance, but a company’s willingness to put real dollars at stake underscores the confidence they have and that their customers should have in their solution.
What is your outlook for 2009?
Times are tough, but projects are still getting done and forcing some tough decisions. The best companies are continuing to adopt CRM technologies because they have identified that CRM and superior customer experiences are the best ways to keep and expand a customer base in a weakened economic state. Customers don’t grow on trees and in tough economic times it is even harder to attract new ones.
Thank you to Greg Gianforte, Jason Mittelstaedt, Joseph Brown and Katie O’Connell for contributing to this profile.