It is always hard to predict the future, but here are my 10 Predictions for the SaaS market in 2011, and they might just happen:

Blockbuster Subscription Software IPO’s

A number of large consumer subscription software players including Facebook, Groupon, LinkedIn, Zynga and Skype could really open up the public markets with a major blockbuster IPO (or IPO’s) in 2011.  SaaS firms that look to get everyone’s attention with potential IPO’s next year include Cornerstone OnDemand, Workday, Marketo, Service-Now and possibly Plateau.

Major Players Merge to Form the Next Big SaaS Brand

So my prediction (which is a pure guess) is that SuccessFactors and Taleo finally get over their respective CEO ego issues and decide to merge.   Sounds a little crazy, but when you really consider their product portfolios, there might not be as much of an overlap as you might think.  SuccessFactors is basically a performance and analytics company and Taleo is a recruiting and learning (after acquiring Learn.com) company.  They both have some additional components that could be plugged into to create a more comprehensive suite of CPM and Talent Management offerings.

This would also create a combined company with a market cap approaching (SFSF + TLEO) $4B and annual revenues in excess of $400M, which would be the second largest SaaS firm in the market, and a clear leader in their space.  Another potential marriage might be Concur and Ultimate Software.

Oracle Finally Pulls the Trigger on NetSuite

It seems like most Oracle SaaS rumors involve the acquisition of Salesforce.com, and that may happen some day, but the more likely combination for 2011 is NetSuite.  Larry Ellison is a major investor in NetSuite (early investor) and own/controls more that 50% of the company’s shares.  He may come to the conclusion that he needs some real SaaS DNA inside of Oracle to help grow their Fusion business in 2011 and beyond.

SAP Throws in The Towel and Buys Leading SaaS Player

Similar to the realization that many other major traditional ISV’s will come to in 2011, that they are too far beyond in SaaS to catch up organically, SAP will buy their way into SaaS.  The Business ByDesign project for SAP, by some estimates, has cost more than $1 billion and there isn’t much to show for it.  I always thought that the Sybase acquisition was just a smoke screen to cover up how little progress has been made with BBD at their most recent Sapphire user meeting.   Like Oracle, I think SAP reaches out into the market and purchases a SaaS firm to jump start BBD.  RightNow would be an interesting choice since SAP wants to make a splash in the CRM market.

Master Brands Continue to March Towards SaaS

These big software companies are no longer just paying lip service to SaaS or the Cloud, they continue to catch up with the subscription software market transition that is happening everywhere.  All sizes of customers who were battered during the recession are no longer interested in spending a lot of capital and time that has been associated with traditional software projects and are becoming increasing comfortable with SaaS.  This shift in the Software market is massive and is going to take at least 10 years, and we are probably only in the second year (post-recession) of this shift.  Continue to look to see what SaaS moves firms like Oracle, SAP, HP, CA and Infor make in 2011.

Continued Explosion of PaaS offerings

Look at Salesforce.com’s recent moves to expand their Force.com Platform-as-a-Service portfolio with VMForce and then buying Ruby on Rails provider Heroku for over $200 million.  Beyond Force.com there are many other offerings here today and coming in 2011 including App Engine by Google, Apprenda, Azure by Microsoft, Corent, Engine Yard, Facebook, Flex by Adobe, Fusion by Oracle, Intalio, IPP by Intuit, LongJump, Nimbula, SuiteCloud by NetSuite, and Wolf Frameworks.

As long as traditional ISV’s continue to move towards SaaS, there will be a green field opportunity for all types of PaaS solutions. Look for several of these firms to be acquired in 2011 by larger ISV’s.

Salesforce.com Continues to Expand Beyond CRM

After attending Dreamforce this month, it was curious to see a number of Force.com firms offering ERP extensions starting to gain real market momentum. Companies like FinancialForce.com (they purchased Appirio’s PSE business) who are delivering a growing suite of financial and accounting applications, JobScience who continue to build out their Talent Relationship Management suite on Force.com, Less Software who is selling a targeted Supply Chain Management solution and even Remedy’s Service Desk offering, RemedyForce Cloud.   If Salesforce offers an attractive exit for any of these firms or their Force.com products, like they did with Heroku, then it might be possible to do a quick roll-up of key partners to create a competitive Cloud-based ERP solution.

Interestingly this type of move might be triggered by Oracle buying Netsuite or Workday going public.

Fake SaaS Firms That Use Private Clouds Will Loose Altitude

Although Private Clouds might be a viable alternative for enterprises who are looking to leverage the economics of the Cloud, for software companies this type of approach will only provide short term ‘Fake SaaS‘ types of solutions.  This type of business model of hosting single-tenant software was known as Application Service Providers (ASP’s) and none of these companies that emerged about 10 years ago were able to find a business model that really scaled profitably.   Private Clouds will offer a short term technology transition steps for software companies who are moving away from just offering traditional on-premise software but this trend will really start to fade by later next year.

New Revenue Streams for SaaS Firms That OEM

At Dreamforce ‘10 Salesforce.com announced that they are launching their new Database.com offering, a Database in the Cloud. What was interesting about this news is that Salesforce is really just reselling a private-label version of Oracle’s database technology.  For Salesforce this is a unique way to take proven Oracle software, designed for on-premise deployment, and create a true subscription-based version of this product.  No doubt that Salesforce will need to do some work to create a massive multi-tenant version of an ORACLE database and then deliver it as a service, but they are already doing this today through their Force.com platform.  This could be a significant new revenue stream for both companies and look for other SaaS firms to try OEM’ing their software as a way to improve their CAGRs in 2011.

This should be an interesting year as the economy improves and the SaaS market really begins to gain some serious momentum.  It should be a fun time to be in the Software business again.

Kevin Dobbs,  Montclair Advisors, LLC

The broader SaaS market (I would include PaaS and Cloud Computing) have been really interesting this year and here are some of the notable news items that have caught my attention over the past couple of months:

Mergers & Acqusitions

SuccessFactors buys CubeTree for $50M… Interesting move into the collaboration space

IBM buys CastIron … Nice compliment to their Cloud Infrastructure offerings.  Is Boomi next?

… then IBM buys CoreMetrics.

Salesforce.com buys JigSaw for $142M! … Surprised that they would pay up for a content company.

CA buys Nimsoft for $350M … gets into the SaaS infrastructure management market.  Good company.

SAP buys Sybase for $5.8B …  not sure about this one?  A diversion to deflect attention away from BBD?

RedPrairie buys SmartTurn … traditional SCM provider begins their move to SaaS.

VMWare looking at EngineYard … interesting since Amazon funded this Ruby-on-Rails PaaS startup.

Fundings & IPO’s

Marketing Automation: Marketo raises $10M Series D, led by Mayfield.

Enterprise Collaboration: Yammer raises $10M Series B, led by Emergence Capital.

Financial Analytics:  Host Analytics raises $15M Series C, led by Next World Capital.

Cloud Business Intelligence:  Cloud9 Analytics raises $8M Series C, led by Mayfield.

Recent SaaS/Cloud IPO’s include Convio, SPS Commerce and Financial Engines.

New Products and Launches

Broadvision launches Clearvale … Ning for the enterprise.

Plateau launches PaaS platform for Talent Management

Mercer partners with PeopleClick Authoria, first combination of HR consulting content with Talent Management technology platform

VMware and Force.com partner, launch VMForce.

Lawson launches ERP Cloud offering on Amazon AWS … too little, too late?

Recently Profiled SaaS Companies by Montclair Advisors

Birst, CentralDesktop, Cloud9 Analytics, GoodData, Marketo, Netsuite and WOLF Frameworks.

There are definitely a lot going on in the SaaS and Cloud Computing markets and we will continue to cover newsworthy events and profile leading players throughout 2010.

Company:             Wolf Frameworks

Started:                2006

Located:               Bangalore, India  and Herndon, Virginia

Geography:          Global

Market:                Cloud and Platform-as-a-Service

Products:            Wolf Frameworks PaaS

Key Customers: TRA, GMR, Wipro, Delhi Frieght Carriers, HLB Mann, eCounting, Head Start, Juice Junction, SEDS and eDok

Website:             Wolf Frameworks

Blog:                   Wolf PaaS Blog

Twitter:                @WolfPaaS

Recent News:

ARTIST - Learn2turn builds E-DoK on WOLF PaaS

I asked Sunny Ghosh, WOLF Frameworks, Director and CEO a few questions about his business and his view of the SaaS and PaaS market in 2010.

How did you get started?

We started WOLF in 2006 as a pure play Cloud Computing company about 4 years ago. My partner Ralph Vaz started the company and we have both been in the technology industry for more than 30 years collectively.

We have worked on building many exciting products such as Invensys Skelta, Ebbon-Dacs, DB Query, Digimaker CMS that are widely used in the United States, Europe and Scandinavia.

We have seen technology as a growing burden to a customer’s business. When the technology changes like when COBOL transitions to Pascal, then to .Net, then to the next big technology. But why couldn’t technology be separated from the business because it doesn’t make much sense to tightly render a technology specific assembly for customers, which cannot be changed without technical programming? If you could just keep technology complexity and business requirements separate, then technology could be democratized and be made available to all sizes of companies.

Since the Browser is now the focal point of all modern computing, this means this is the end of the operating system and PC-centric approach to applications. By simplifying technology and making easier to access and less expensive, there is a much larger customer base to build our new business on.

Why do customers buy from WOLF Frameworks?

We have three different types of customers that we sell through our partners:

• SaaS Startup’s who have a great idea and want to build a prototype. This type of customer will be a single user and spend a month to build out their concept.
• Professional Services companies that offers business of services and wants to develop a tool that eliminates services time and to create a new recurring revenue stream.
• Enterprises and ISV’s that are looking to create line-of-business applications, and mashups like GoToMeeting integration with their CRM system or corporate dashboard solutions.

At WOLF we offer a zero code Platform-as-a-Service offering. Since most of our customers and users are business analysts, we needed to make a product that was easy to use. WOLF Frameworks consists of a five layer of architecture including XML integration, billing, presentation, application development and database layers.

WOLF Frameworks offers a variety of capabilities that make it a rapid development environment like the following:

• Templates
• Reports
• API’s
• Multiple devices
• Built in storage
• Business rules and workflow engine
• Access rights
• Support for multiple databases

All of these capabilities allow customers to develop applications 70% faster than traditional approaches at half the cost. Customers have used different types of applications including accounting systems and also electronic patient record system.

We also use open standards like XML, AJAX for inter-operability and portability. WOLF also is based on leading technologies like .Net, MySQL, and SQLServer. Our platform also works with leading Infrastructure-as-a-Service providers like Amazon Web Services, Rackspace and a Canadian provider iWeb.

The WOLF platform can also operate in a hybrid environment that supports both Cloud and on-premise applications. In fact we can take a license of your OnDemand Cloud application into your Private Cloud whenever and since we use a single code base it is possible to sync-up hybrid environments.

One of the major reasons customers like to use our platform is because WOLF Frameworks offers minimal vendor lock-in. Applications developed with WOLF are portable since they built with XML. The data, application design and the hosting providers can be moved, with minimal effort.

What broad trends are you seeing in the SaaS/Cloud markets?

Obviously one major trend is the emergence of the Platform-as-a-Service solutions like WOLF. Our customers are looking for fast, cost-effective ways to develop new Cloud-based solutions to either replace older products or to build out totally new ideas.

There are many different PaaS solutions emerging;

• Application-led solutions from Netsuite and Salesforce;
• Application development-centric solutions like WOLF, Force.com or Intuit’s Quickbase
• Development-centric solutions built on LAMP, Ruby on Rails or Microsoft’s Azure and
• Community-centric platforms like Linkedin and Facebook.

The other trend Private Clouds. Our same customers are looking for ways to extend their existing solutions out to the Cloud but are concerned about security and Private Clouds offer a great alternative to on-premise software. WOLF also offers the ability to develop applications that can run in a hybrid mode, both on-premise or in a Private Cloud as well as out in the Public Cloud. You can also migrate existing web applications into WOLF’s multi-tenant platform rapidly.

What’s your outlook for the balance of 2010?

We are feeling good about our growth and have 10,000 users today and look forward to continuing a solid 2010.